The Wednesday Weekly
Financial Market Insight March 18th, 2026
Weekly Market Insight
Welcome to our weekly market update. This newsletter is designed to provide you with current market data, investment insights, and educational information about market trends and strategies. The content herein represents our observations and analysis of market conditions and is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute personalized investment advice or a recommendation for any specific security or strategy.
Major Market Indexes
Closing Price as of 03/17/2026
The Strong Tower Difference
Ask Yourself…
What do you own?
Why do you own what you own?
Do you know what you’re truly paying for your investment management and advice?
If you can’t answer these three questions, watch this video
Items of Interest
March Madness…. Don’t Go for the Pump Fake!
Pump Fake: In basketball, a pump fake is when a player fakes a shot to get a defender to jump off the ground. Then the offensive player drives or shoots after the defender has landed. In markets, it’s the same move when a stock or index surges, luring buyers in just before reversing sharply lower. The “shot” never comes. You left your feet, and now you’re out of position.
I played basketball in high school and was fortunate enough to attend college on a basketball scholarship. With the NCAA basketball tournament beginning, this week is one of my favorite times of the year for watching sports. Ironically, some of the “coaching” I received on the court, applies directly to what I do today.
Much like March Madness, the selection process mirrors a Relative Strength investment strategy. The NCAA selection committee doesn’t just pick the most popular teams. They rank teams systematically based on a variety of demonstrated performance criteria. Similarly, Relative Strength investing doesn’t chase headlines or hype; it ranks securities based on actual price performance relative to its peers.
The parallels are very compelling:
Overall win-loss record → A stock’s total return over a measured period. Has it been winning more than it’s been losing?
Strength of schedule → Has the stock held up in a tough market environment: rising rates, volatility, sector headwinds?
Quality wins → Strong performance during market rallies. Was it a leader, or laggard?
Bad losses → Sharp drawdowns that disqualify otherwise decent performers. One ugly loss can knock a team, or a stock, down the rankings.
Road wins → Gains made in unfavorable conditions. A stock that rises even when its sector is struggling stands out. Also called divergence.
Head-to-head results → How does this stock or fund rank directly against its peers in the same category?
Then we like to get involved in the Bracketology. What teams will we select, in the office pool to win it all?
If we pick our teams and players based on the data, choosing those teams we believe will give us the best chance to win the bracket pool. Why can’t your investments be selected the same way? What players, what stocks, with specific selection criteria, give us the best opportunity to be successful over time?
When playing basketball defensively and “closing out” on a shooter, after a skip pass or getting hung up coming off a screen, a clever scorer would often use a “pump fake” to get the defender off their feet. This would create space for an uncontested shot. Because of this, we were taught to close out under control and stay on the ground, rather than overcommit. In the same way, recently when oil prices spiked, the question became whether investors were overreacting too quickly. Essentially “chasing” the move rather than waiting for a clearer opportunity.
Granted, oil improved in 2025; however, for the last couple of years, oil has been an underperforming sector. Oil has underperformed considerably compared to Technology, over the long-term.
So, this poses a few questions:
Is the volatility in the oil sector a “pump fake”? Is it just enough of a move to get us off our feet and out of position? Consider the price action over the last few weeks. Oil spiked from the mid-$60s to over $118, fell back to $77, climbed again to $102, and as of this writing sits at $93.58. That is not a calm, trending market. That is a market that has punished the undisciplined.
Or is this a significant rotation into oil and out of other areas? This remains to be seen.
Short term volatility on economic and/or geopolitical news can unfortunately, affect the markets and distress many investors.
Bottom Line:
At STWM, we will continue to monitor the markets daily and our positions within the model.
We will adjust as we see prudent regarding market conditions.
We prefer to “stay on our feet” and not overreact to the situational aspects of the market.
We will stay with our game plan to evaluate the overall market, sectors and individual positions we maintain.
We intend to always keep the best players on the court/field with a working inventory of stocks (players on the bench) ready to adjust/replace, if warranted.
Enjoy the next few weeks of the NCAA basketball tournament. There will be surprises. A “Cinderella” team or two, will emerge that we all want to root for. However, the likelihood of a low seed getting into the Final 4 and winning it all, is not likely.
Although we all like to pull for the underdog, not so much when it comes to your money though, right? But do you want to put your money into a 15 or 16 seed? Or would it make more sense to invest in a top 1 to 3 seed?
Stay with strength and stay on your feet.
New Website!
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Current Strong Tower Model Allocation
Clients Only — Allocation as of 03/17/2026
Bottom Line:
26.00% of our model is currently in the top 4 Industry Groups.
93.00% of our model is currently in the top 8 Industry Groups.
About Us
At Strong Tower Wealth Management, we offer comprehensive wealth management services using a goal-focused and holistic approach that considers each client’s overall financial situation, including their family, circumstances, and objectives. Our services include investment management, insurance planning, and estate planning coordination, provided with an emphasis on clarity and transparency.
Not a client yet? We invite you to schedule an introductory assessment with Brett to discuss your financial goals and learn more about how we can support you.
Brett Lewis
Founder / Managing Director
Strong Tower Wealth Management
www.strongtowerwealthmanagement.com